We'll still see a lot of controversies of “Is this AGI? and what is AGI?” I think people shouldn't be worried about AI taking over the world. We will see more startups and other companies like OpenAI releasing the next larger models, and we'll see new capabilities. Congress is not going to pass much legislation going into an election year. For the U.S., we’re probably not going to see major regulation. There's back and forth whether that will affect the big American tech companies and their models, but it will come down very soon in 2024. The EU is getting into their final position for enacting widespread AI rules. Consumers need to be aware of that, voters need to be aware of it. Therefore we’ll also have to be more vigilant to serious deepfakes - we’ll see the spread of videos in which people “say” things that they never said. I expect to see big new multimodal models, particularly in video generation. Rarely will it completely automate any job - it's mostly going to be augmenting and extending what we can do.Įrik Brynjolfsson, Director, Stanford Digital Economy Lab Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor and Senior Fellow, Stanford HAI Ralph Landau Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Deepfake Proliferation If we embrace it, it should be making our jobs better and allow us to do new things we couldn't have done before. Creative workers, lawyers, finance professors and more are going to see their jobs change quite a bit this year. It's going to affect knowledge workers, people who have been largely spared by a lot of the computer revolution in the past 30 years. I expect mass adoption by companies that will start delivering some of the productivity benefits that we've been hoping for for a long time. Here are seven predictions from faculty and senior fellows at Stanford HAI. Expect bigger and multimodal models, exciting new capabilities, and more conversations around how we want to use and regulate this technology. Have we reached peak AI? No, say several Stanford scholars. Meanwhile, policymakers started getting serious about AI regulation - the EU put forth t he most comprehensive set of policies governing the technology yet, and the Biden Administration published a comprehensive Executive Order detailing 150 requirements for federal agencies. Companies sank major investment into AI startups (Microsoft’s $10 billion drop into OpenAI, Amazon’s $4 billion to Anthropic to name just two), while leading AI researchers and CEOs debated AGI’s likelihood in headlines. This past year marked major advances in generative AI as terms like ChatGPT and Bard become household names.
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